As of Dec. 30, 2006
At this very early stage of the game, 6 candidates have filed paperwork to officially declare themselves in the running for the office of the President in 2008. This short article is destined to be expanded as the campaign swings into full gear, but for now, here are the PoliteTalk comments and odds on the candidates who have filed. Democrats
John Edwards has has declared, and filed his paperwork with the FEC. A former US Senator from North Carolina, Sen. Edwards is an attorney and former vice presidential candidate for the Democratic Party, running with Sen. John Kerry in 2004.
Sen. Edwards is famous for his populist speech about "two America's", where disparities in income and status are highlighted. Coming from humble beginnings himself, the speech resonates with his audiences. Our guess is that he will get early and strong criticism due to some tax issues (he paid his salary in a manner to avoid paying over $500,000 in Medicare tax prior to becoming a politician) and because he was part of a losing team in the last election. Sen. Edwards is eloquent, and an attractive candidate, so the extra attention may not hurt his chances in the primaries.
PoliteTalk Odds: 4:1 Rep. Dennis Kucinich is also a declared candidate with some national recognition. Hailing from Ohio, Rep. Kucinich is self-described as a peace candidate, with the home page of his campaign site having the following quote (on Dec. 30, 2006):
Often considered a "liberal's liberal", Rep. Kucinich has a solidly liberal voting record and was considered one of the first opponents of the war in Iraq. He believes that his position would have been a winning one for presidential candidate Sen. Kerry in 2004, and feels the Democratic base will reward him for being right early on (he ran in 2004 as well). Because his views are far to the left of most people, we are putting his odds of winning the nomination at 10:1, but events in the middle east may help him by the time the primaries come along.
PoliteTalk Odds: 10:1 Tom Vilsack, governor of Iowa, has officially thrown his hat into the ring. Unlike Sen. Gravel's site, Gov. Vilsack doesn't provide a bulleted list of positions. On his site, he includes speeches about energy independence, the type of "national conversation" the Democratic Leadership Council should be having, health insurance, etc. Nailing down specific positions from this material is a difficult job: For instance, you don't see an overt call for nationalized, single payer health insurance, but a speech on that subject talks about how Iowa worked to standardize claim forms and increase medicaid coverage for children.
Gov. Vilsack is Chair of the Democratic Leadership Council, the position Bill Clinton held prior to his run. Like President Clinton, Tom Vilsack appears to be a center-left candidate with pretty good bonifides from his arguably successful tenure as Governor.
PoliteTalk Odds: 3:1 Mike Gravel has declared he is running, and his website gives a brief bio and updated picture. A former US Senator from Alaska, Sen. Gravel lays out several bullet points on his web page:
PoliteTalk Odds: 22:1 Republicans
John Cox, a businessman and Republican activist from Illinois, has a pretty good business background and a string of unsuccessful attempts at attaining elected office. His state party experience is varied and interesting.
His website includes an "Issues" section, with strong defense, continuing the war on terror, winning in Iraq, national soverignity, the Right to Life, opposition to gay marriage and civil unions, family issues and "free but fair trade". In terms of his positions, he would be an acceptable candidate to the conservative wing of the Republican Party.
PoliteTalk Odds: 22:1 Michael Charles Smith is self-described on his web site as "Representing Traditional Republican Values of Smaller, Less Intrusive Government". Bullet points on his home page, linked to more in-depth discussion of the issues, describe him as a:
Smith has little governmental experience, and works for Hewlett Packard. He has military experience with training as a Russian linguist, and served 7 years. His personal statement on the site includes some criticism of Ireland where he moved his family for a brief stay; its a funny passage, but sure one that would alienate Europeans were he elected President.
PoliteTalk Odds: 22:1 That's the early scoop on official, declared candidates. As more declare, we'll update this article (or provide others) to give our comments and odds. Comments and questions can be directed to Frank Hagan.
-- Frank Hagan
Discuss in our Forums!
At this very early stage of the game, 6 candidates have filed paperwork to officially declare themselves in the running for the office of the President in 2008. This short article is destined to be expanded as the campaign swings into full gear, but for now, here are the PoliteTalk comments and odds on the candidates who have filed. Democrats
John Edwards has has declared, and filed his paperwork with the FEC. A former US Senator from North Carolina, Sen. Edwards is an attorney and former vice presidential candidate for the Democratic Party, running with Sen. John Kerry in 2004.
Sen. Edwards is famous for his populist speech about "two America's", where disparities in income and status are highlighted. Coming from humble beginnings himself, the speech resonates with his audiences. Our guess is that he will get early and strong criticism due to some tax issues (he paid his salary in a manner to avoid paying over $500,000 in Medicare tax prior to becoming a politician) and because he was part of a losing team in the last election. Sen. Edwards is eloquent, and an attractive candidate, so the extra attention may not hurt his chances in the primaries.
PoliteTalk Odds: 4:1 Rep. Dennis Kucinich is also a declared candidate with some national recognition. Hailing from Ohio, Rep. Kucinich is self-described as a peace candidate, with the home page of his campaign site having the following quote (on Dec. 30, 2006):
The punishment of Saddam Hussein for the deaths of 148 persons, albeit in a manner that civil society ought to find repugnant, raises compelling questions: Who will be held accountable for sending 3,000 US troops to their deaths in Iraq, for a war based on lies?
Often considered a "liberal's liberal", Rep. Kucinich has a solidly liberal voting record and was considered one of the first opponents of the war in Iraq. He believes that his position would have been a winning one for presidential candidate Sen. Kerry in 2004, and feels the Democratic base will reward him for being right early on (he ran in 2004 as well). Because his views are far to the left of most people, we are putting his odds of winning the nomination at 10:1, but events in the middle east may help him by the time the primaries come along.
PoliteTalk Odds: 10:1 Tom Vilsack, governor of Iowa, has officially thrown his hat into the ring. Unlike Sen. Gravel's site, Gov. Vilsack doesn't provide a bulleted list of positions. On his site, he includes speeches about energy independence, the type of "national conversation" the Democratic Leadership Council should be having, health insurance, etc. Nailing down specific positions from this material is a difficult job: For instance, you don't see an overt call for nationalized, single payer health insurance, but a speech on that subject talks about how Iowa worked to standardize claim forms and increase medicaid coverage for children.
Gov. Vilsack is Chair of the Democratic Leadership Council, the position Bill Clinton held prior to his run. Like President Clinton, Tom Vilsack appears to be a center-left candidate with pretty good bonifides from his arguably successful tenure as Governor.
PoliteTalk Odds: 3:1 Mike Gravel has declared he is running, and his website gives a brief bio and updated picture. A former US Senator from Alaska, Sen. Gravel lays out several bullet points on his web page:
- Immediate Withdrawal from Iraq
- Raze Guantanamo and Abu Ghraib
- Stop raiding Social Security Trust Fund
- Universal "single payer" Healthcare
- Eliminate Income Tax / Initiate Sales Tax
- End War against Veterans
- Initiate direct democracy
PoliteTalk Odds: 22:1 Republicans
John Cox, a businessman and Republican activist from Illinois, has a pretty good business background and a string of unsuccessful attempts at attaining elected office. His state party experience is varied and interesting.
His website includes an "Issues" section, with strong defense, continuing the war on terror, winning in Iraq, national soverignity, the Right to Life, opposition to gay marriage and civil unions, family issues and "free but fair trade". In terms of his positions, he would be an acceptable candidate to the conservative wing of the Republican Party.
PoliteTalk Odds: 22:1 Michael Charles Smith is self-described on his web site as "Representing Traditional Republican Values of Smaller, Less Intrusive Government". Bullet points on his home page, linked to more in-depth discussion of the issues, describe him as a:
- Fiscal Conservative
- Social Libertarian
- Parent
- Pro States / Local Rights
- Veteran
- Abortion hinges on individual belief regarding the inception of life. The government shouldn't make policy on matters of belief.
- Drug use should be de-felonized.
- Creationism and 'intelligent design' are beliefs, not science.
- Gay marriage is no threat to the social fabric.
Smith has little governmental experience, and works for Hewlett Packard. He has military experience with training as a Russian linguist, and served 7 years. His personal statement on the site includes some criticism of Ireland where he moved his family for a brief stay; its a funny passage, but sure one that would alienate Europeans were he elected President.
PoliteTalk Odds: 22:1 That's the early scoop on official, declared candidates. As more declare, we'll update this article (or provide others) to give our comments and odds. Comments and questions can be directed to Frank Hagan.
-- Frank Hagan
Discuss in our Forums!